The recent U.S. election exemplifies the fundamental right to freely choose leaders, but it also signals potential threats to human rights in Myanmar.
Reduced diplomatic pressure on Myanmar’s military
Trump’s first presidential term demonstrated a clear preference for U.S. economic and strategic interests over human rights globally, rarely upholding international law while frequently fostering relationships with authoritarian leaders at the expense of the populations under their control. Re-adopting that approach, including at the UN, could further reduce already weak diplomatic pressure on authoritarians worldwide to curb their ongoing human rights abuses. This would almost inevitably reduce pressure on Myanmar’s military, and encourage their authoritarian sponsors such as China and Russia to provide even more arms and political cover for atrocity crimes.
While the military may often appear indifferent to diplomatic pressure, reducing scrutiny further would only embolden it to intensify its repressive actions, worsening the already severe conditions for Myanmar’s people. Human rights defenders, journalists, political activists and CSOs would likely face even higher risks of detentions, harassment, and violence following a reduction in U.S. pressure.
Increased focus on China
The first Trump administration often seemed fixated on countering China’s influence in Southeast Asia, prioritising strategic competition over Myanmar’s human rights abuses. An intensified focus on China in a second term could potentially lead to an increase in U.S. support for Myanmar’s opposition movement, given the military’s close alliance with China. However, it is also likely that this support will centre on counterbalancing Chinese power, rather than addressing the needs of the Myanmar people, such as ending human rights abuses, re-establishing democracy, and rebuilding civil society.
Conversely, Trump’s stated preference for a reduced U.S. role in foreign affairs, often favouring a transactional approach, could lead to a U.S. withdrawal from Myanmar altogether, creating more space for China’s authoritarian government to exert influence. This shift could push Myanmar further into becoming a client state, akin to Cambodia and Laos, with likely increases in human rights violations as China’s influence expands.
Reduced and redirected civil society funding
The first Trump administration significantly cut global development funds, including for several UN agencies working on health and peace, with additional cuts blocked by Congress. While UN agencies in Myanmar have faced criticism regarding their effectiveness since the coup, further cuts would impact Myanmar’s civil society as well, much of which relies on U.S. grants and UN sub-grants. Although funding changes may take time to implement, and Congress generally leads on Myanmar policy, any reduction or delay in resources would inevitably hinder civil society’s ability to monitor human rights abuses, deliver humanitarian aid, and advocate for marginalised groups.
A new Trump administration may shift funding priorities toward ideological or faith-based organisations. Although Myanmar has a long tradition of faith-based civil society, U.S. support should respond to local needs first and foremost rather than focus on advancing particular beliefs.
A substantial share of U.S. aid has been directed to supporting Myanmar’s refugees, including the Rohingya in Bangladesh. However, given Trump’s history of promoting anti-refugee and anti-Muslim narratives, there is a risk that the U.S. could withdraw or reduce such support, jeopardising rights protections and resettlement opportunities for these marginalised populations.
Decreased support for international accountability mechanisms
The first Trump administration may have initiated sanctions against the Myanmar military, but it also withdrew U.S. support from international institutions that uphold accountability and human rights. A repeat of this stance would lead to decreased U.S. backing for accountability mechanisms that are now challenging Myanmar’s military leaders, such as the UN Human Rights Council, IIMM, International Criminal Court, and the UN Office for the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR).
While international accountability mechanisms may seem slow and limited compared to domestic courts, they currently represent the only global avenues for documenting human rights, collecting prosecutable evidence, and building future justice efforts.
Undermining global climate action
Trump’s first administration rolled back environmental protections and withdrew from international climate agreements, and a second term is likely to further weaken the global response to escalating climate crises. This has serious human rights implications for Myanmar, one of the countries most vulnerable to worsening climate impacts and frequent climate-related disasters. Recent severe flooding in Myanmar highlights the urgent need for international climate cooperation and resources to bolster the country’s climate resilience. Reduced U.S. support could limit available resources and slow coordinated global efforts, exposing Myanmar even more to the climate crisis and its humanitarian consequences.
Recommendations
While all free and fair elections are to be celebrated, the first Trump administration had a chilling effect on human rights globally and therefore a second term raises serious concerns for Myanmar. It is essential that all stakeholders—including civil society, opposition groups, and foreign governments—recognise these potential threats and work in concert to counteract them. To safeguard Myanmar’s path to human rights and democratic governance, stakeholders should advocate for sustained U.S. diplomatic pressure on Myanmar’s military, emphasising the importance of accountability for ongoing human rights abuses.
Equally critical is ensuring that U.S. funding priorities remain focused on addressing the needs of Myanmar’s people. This requires active support for local CSOs, humanitarian aid efforts, and international accountability mechanisms, such as the UN Human Rights Council and the International Criminal Court. By rallying together, stakeholders can help to preserve the resilience of Myanmar’s civil society and uphold international human rights standards in the face of these new challenges.